Nogger's Blog

20/06/16 -- EU grains finished mixed, with Jul 16 London close down GBP1.85/tonne at GBP107.85/tonne, Sep 16 Paris wheat was up EUR1.25/tonne at EUR164.25/tonne, Aug corn was EUR1.75/tonne lower at EUR179.50/tonne and Aug 16 rapeseed was up EUR0.75/tonne to EUR367.00/tonne.

MARS lowered their forecast for total EU-28 soft wheat yields this year from a previous 6.11 MT/ha to 6.07 MT/ha, "the downward revision for Germany and France was not completely compensated by the upward revision for Spain, Italy and Portugal," they said.

French yields were pegged at 7.32 MT/ha, down 6% versus 7.79 MT/ha a year ago, although still slightly above the 5-year average of 7.20 MT/ha. UK average yields were estimate down 10% year-on-year at 8.09 MT/ga, although again this is still above the 5-year average of 7.89 MT/ha.

In France, winter barley yields are seen falling 5.4%, with those of spring barley down 2.9%. UK barley yields are forecast 10.1% and 5.6% lower respectively.

Spain is one of the stand-out gainers this year, with wheat yields up more than 20%, and barley yields rising nearly 40% compared to last year.

French rapeseed yields are estimated 8.6% lower this year, with the UK down 0.5%, Germany up 3.8% and Poland 12.6% lower.

South Korea were said to have purchased 112,000 MT of probably EU feed wheat for Aug/Sep shipment. Saudi Arabia bought 315,000 MT of 12.5% hard milling wheat, believed by many to be German/the Baltic/Polish origin for September delivery.

Jordan tendered for 100,000 MT of option origin milling wheat.

Russian seaports grain exports dwindled to only 51,500 MT last week, customs data shows. Ukraine's were much better at 445,800 MT, including 331,500 MT of wheat.

Still, Russia's Jul 1 to Jun 15 total grain exports are up 12% at 33.28 MMT., That total includes 24.11 MMT of wheat, 4.22 MMT of barley and 4.62 MMT of corn.

IKAR estimated on Friday that Russia would produce another record grain crop in 2016.