Chicago Grains Post Small Gains Ahead Of USDA Report
08/03/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher for a fifth day, which I guess sets the tone for lower consolidation type trade in the morning ahead of tomorrow's USDA WASDE report. The trade is expecting Brazilian production at an average 100.13 MMT in that (versus 100 MMT last month) and with Argentina at 58.85 MMT (Feb: 58.5 MMT). US 2015/16 ending stocks are seen little changed at 452 million bu, versus the Feb estimate of 450 million. Today the USDA said that private exporters had sold 110,000 MT of US soybeans to China for 2016/17 delivery, and an additional 140,000 MT to unknown destinations (split 70,000 MT for 2015/16 delivery, and 70,000 MT for 2016/17 delivery). China said that it had imported 4.51 MMT of beans in February versus 4.26 MMT a year ago and 5.66 MMT in January. Feb imports would usually decline due to the Lunar New Year. Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.77 1/2, up 4 cents; May 16 Soybeans settled at $8.84 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents; Mar 16 Soybean Meal settled at $270.80, up $2.30; Mar 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.92, down 3 points.
Corn: The corn market closed higher, with the Dec contract also posting a fifth successive day of increase. Tomorrow's USDA report is expected to peg Brazilian production at an average 84.5 MMT, up 0.5 MMT versus their February estimate. Argentina is expected to come in at 27.23 MMT (Feb: 27.0 MMT). US 2015/15 corn ending stocks are seen at an average of 1,854 million bushels, up 17 million from a month ago. US exports are noticably lagging the pace required to meet USDA expectations for 2015/16, but they might not adjust these or ending stocks too drastically until next month, some are saying. Once we get tomorrow's USDA report out of the way, the trade will be looking to the Planting Intentions estimates due at the end of the month and then starting to concentrate on long-term US weather forecasts for the spring/summer. The EU-28 2016 corn crop will rebound to 67.3 MMT, up 16% compared to 58 MMT in 2015, said the EU Commission in it's first look into the season ahead. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.58 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents; May 16 Corn settled at $3.60 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed a touch higher heading into tomorrow's report. In that US all wheat ending stocks for 2015/16 are seen riding 9 million bushels to 975 million bu. The EU Commission forecast 2016/17 soft wheat production there down 5.5% this year at 143.6 MMT. However, they see exports also dipping, and the large carry-in left over from this season propelling ending stocks up to an eight-year high of 17.4 MMT. "The warmer than normal winter means that so far there is only limited frost kill in western Poland, eastern Bulgaria and Romania and the Baltic countries. However, the warm weather also led to delayed cereal hardening in most parts of Europe. This indicates that winter crops still remain vulnerable to potential frost damage," they noted, in line with other commentators. Kansas winter wheat was rated 56% Good to Excellent; Texas 42% G/E; Oklahoma 66% G/E. May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.65 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents; May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.71, up 1/4 cent; May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.03 3/4, up 3 cents.