Chicago Grains End Week In Mixed Fashion
15/01/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed around 3-5 cents easier on the day, but higher for the week. The NOPA December crush of 157.7 million bushels came in virtually right at the average trade guess of 157.8 million. Safras lowered their Brazil soybean estimate to 99.8 MMT from 100.4 MMT last month. Still a record though. The weekly commitment iof traders report shows managed money lightening the load with regards to their CBOT soybean short position. They are now short to the tune of 26,507 less contracts that they were a week ago. Their overall net short is now just over -53,000 lots. Mar 16 Soybeans closed at $8.79, down 3 1/4 cents; Mar 16 Soybean Meal closed at $270.70, down $3.50; Mar 16 Soybean Oil closed at $29.65, down 10 points. Mar beans closed the week 13 3/4 cents higher than they began it.
Corn: Corn closed around 4-5 cents higher on the day. Nothing much has changed fundamentally, but a managed money overall net short position in corn of a record -186,831 contracts will be making some nervous, and could lead to some sudden and irrational price moves in the week ahead. Ideas are that Argentine corn plantings are creeping higher at the death. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated these at 3.1 million ha, up from 2.85 million previously. IMEA said that safrinha corn plantings in Brazil's Mato Gross would increase 2% to 3.38 million ha, but due to late sowings yield could decline 10.6%, taking production down 8.7% to 19.3 MMT (versus 21.2 MMT a year ago). They say that the idea planting window for second crop corn closes on Feb 20, and that growers in the state already average 55% sold due to the weak real (versus only 22% sold a year ago). Mar 16 Corn closed at $3.63 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents; May 16 Corn closed at $3.67 1/2, up 4 3/4 of a cent. For the week, Mar corn was up 6 1/4 cents, and May 16 added 4 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher despite reliable reports of 2 Argentine wheat cargoes heading for the US port of Wilmington in February. The Commitment of Traders report shows managed money dumping 25k lots of their Chicago wheat short to leave them a little over 71k short as of Tuesday night. The EU remains awash with wheat to sell. Their weekly export licence total came in at a fair 754 TMT this week, but the season to date total is still down 12% on this time last year. The USDA ultimately forecasts EU-28 all wheat exports only falling by 8.2% this year, so a bit more ground still needs to be made up there. US dollar strength continues to hamper US wheat export ambitions. Ukraine said that they'd exported almost 22.5 MMT of grains already so far this season, a 15% increase compared with the same period a year ago. That includes 10.63 MMT of wheat and 3.92 MMT of barley. Mar 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.73 3/4, up 5 cents; Mar 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.74, up 5 1/2 cents; Mar 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.97 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents. Chicago wheat ended a choppy week 4 3/4 cents lower than it began it, with Kansas up 3 1/4 cents and Minneapolis down 1 1/4 cents.