US Grains Lower Across The Board
13/01/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed at 6-week lows. "Funds were said to be fleeing the grains and going back to the equities in early half of the session pressuring the corn and beans," said Benson Quinn Commodities. I guess we could call also this follow through activity from yesterday's sharp decline following the release of the USDA's January WASDE and stocks numbers. Today's fall came despite news that China imported a record 8.53 MMT of soybeans in December, up 41.45% from November. January imports are estimated at 6.9 MMT, falling to around 4.5 MMT in February, which is traditionally a quiet month due to the Chinese New Year celebrations. China customs data said that the country imported 71.4 MMT of soybeans in the 2014 calendar year, up 12.65% from 2013. Dr Cordonnier reported that the Brazilian government are to extend the compulsory soybean free period in Mato Grosso state from the current 90 days to 122 days, to run Jun 1 - Sep 30, in a bid to contain the Asian Rust virus. That may help prevent the growing trend to plant two soybean crops in a season in the state, and may also push back the early harvest a little bit next season. Jan 15 Soybeans are at $10.00, down 13 1/2 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans are at $10.04, down 12 cents; Jan 15 Soybean Meal is at $349.70, down $6.80; Jan 15 Soybean Oil is at 32.39, down 6 points.
Corn: The corn market closed at 5-week lows, and well below the $4/bushel level. "Corn couldn’t follow through on the modest support experienced yesterday. Today’s price action hints at a top being formed," was Benson Quinn's opinion of today's action. The USDA announced 105,000 MT of US corn sold to unknown for 2014/15 shipment, but that news wasn't enough to save the day. Crude fell to new lows. The dollar remains firm, and recent weekly export sales continue to indicate that this is harming US export activity. Corn from Ukraine and South America is cheaper. The Ukraine Ministry said that they had exported 7.77 MMT of corn so far this season. Taiwan's MFIG bought 50,000 MT of optional origin (possibly US) corn for Feb-March shipment. Taiwan Sugar Corp are tendering for 23,000 MT of US corn. Tomorrow's weekly US ethanol production data will be particularly interesting, after last week's numbers offered evidence of the perils of ethanol trading at a premium to gasoline, with production down 23,000 barrels/day to 949,000 bpd, and stocks up 700,000 barrels to 18.8 million. After that we get Informa's take on 2015 US spring plantings due on Thursday. Mar 15 Corn is at $3.85 3/4, down 16 1/4 cents; May 15 Corn is at $3.93 1/2, down 16 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower for the fifth day in a row. Dollar strength continues to hamper US export ambitions, as indicated by the recent run of very poor weekly export inspections. Weakness in corn and soybeans didn't help today either. "Chatter regarding Ukraine limiting Jan and Feb sales to 200,000 MT made its way through the trade. Word is exporters have been asked to limit sales for Jan and Feb to 200,000 MT, while an assessment of their supply situation will be done in April," said Benson Quinn. Russia's wheat exports meanwhile are said to have dipped sharply in the first couple of weeks of January. This is partly due to bad weather, the observance of the Orthodox Christmas celebrations, and delays in getting the appropriate paperwork through. That doesn't bode well for traders trying to push through existing sales commitments before the introduction of the new export duty on Feb 1. Agritel forecast Russia's 2014/15 wheat exports at 18 MMT, which is 2 MMT lower than yesterday's revised downwardly estimate from the USDA, They said that 16.3 MMT of that had already been shipped by the end of December. Mar 15 CBOT Wheat is at $5.48, down 7 1/2 cents; Mar 15 KCBT Wheat is at $5.81 3/4, down 8 3/4 cents; Mar 15 MGEX Wheat is at $5.88 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents.