Chicago Close - Beans Supported By Unexpected Old Crop Sale
18/06/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed back above $14 on the front month Jul 14, supported by the USDA announcing 140,000 MT of old crop beans sold to unknown. Some are suggesting that this could be a LH Aug Gulf shipment though, essentially making it new crop beans out of the Mississippi Delta. Dr Cordonnier estimated 2014 US soybean yields at 45.0 bu/acre, unchanged from his previous estimate. He estimated the 2013/14 Brazilian bean crop at 86.5 MMT, and the 2013/14 Argentine bean crop at 55.0 MMT. Both are unchanged from his previous estimates. Oil World said that China had imported 54.38 MMT of beans between September and May, up 32% from a year ago. They estimated China’s June bean imports at a near record high 7.5 MMT versus 6.9 MMT a year previously. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are around zero on old crop and 300-500 TMT on new crop. Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $14.09, up 10 3/4 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $12.13, up 1 cent; Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $453.20, up $2.50; Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at 40.13, up 45 points.
Corn: The corn market closed a little higher on old crop and flat on new crop. Fund money was estimated at being a modest net buyer of around 3,000 corn contracts on the day. Dr Cordonnier estimated the 2014 US corn yield at 165.0 bu/acre, unchanged from his previous estimate. He was said to have forecast the 2013/14 Brazilian corn crop at 77.0 MMT, up sharply from his previous estimate of 74.5 MMT. He pegged the 2013/14 Argentine corn crop at 24.0 MMT, unchanged from his previous estimate. China sold only 10% of the 2.73 MMT of corn that they offered up at auction overnight. MARS estimated EU-28 corn yields this year at 7.3% above last year and 6% higher than the 5-year average. Yields in Ukraine are seen down 10.47% on last year's record, but are still expected to be 3.14% above the 5-year average. Russia are said to have planted 2.7 million hectares of corn for the 2014 harvest, which is over 103% of the existing Ministry forecast. Recent rains will have helped the crop there. Trade forecasts for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 350-550 TMT. Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.41 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents; Sep 14 Corn closed at $4.35 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with decent short-covering gains, with funds buying an estimated net 3,000 lots in Chicago. Heavy rains in Kansas continue to give rise to quality concerns, coming just as the harvest in the leading US wheat state was getting going. MARS estimated EU-28 soft wheat yield at 5.81 MT/ha, up from a previous estimate of 5.79 MT/ha, down fractionally on 5.82 MT/ha last year but up 4.2% versus the 5-year average. "Overall, the outlook for EU-28 yields remains positive: above the 5-year average and close to 2013 yields - with only minor changes (at EU-level) compared to the May forecasts," they said. Jordan made no purchase in a tender to buy 100,000 MT of wheat due to high prices. The Philippines bought 85,000 MT of optional origin feed wheat for Sep–Nov shipment. Barley harvesting is underway in Ukraine and Russia. Early yields are said to be pretty good, and better than was feared a month or so ago. The winter wheat harvest in the region will get going in earnest very soon. Good production prospects out of Romania are keeping competition in the Black Sea fierce. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 350-550 TMT. Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.87, up 5 1/4 cents; Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.27 3/4, up 15 1/4 cents; Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.96 1/4, up 12 1/2 cents.