Chicago Soybeans End Winning Streak, But Only Just

14/11/13 -- Soycomplex: Beans broke their run of six straight up sessions, but only very modestly, closing around a cent or two lower. The Nov 13 soybean contract has now expired, making Jan 14 the new front month on beans. Prices in excess of $13/bu should continue to see decent farmer selling, with Brazilian plantings ahead of normal there's the possibility that they could be harvesting early new crop beans in Mato Grosso by New Year. The Dalian Commodity Exchange President estimated China’s 2013 soybean imports at a record high of 66 MMT. The USDA have 2013/14 imports, which is a slightly different timeframe, at a record 69 MMT. Other analysts estimates are 63-68 MMT. MDA CropCast raised their forecast for the 2013 US soybean crop by 3.89 MMT from last week to 85.52 MMT. The October NOPA crush report comes out tomorrow. Also due tomorrow are the USDA's weekly export sales, with the trade expecting another robust set of numbers, with bean sales estimated at around 800 TMT to 1.2 MMT. Also expected tomorrow are Informa's forecasts for 2014 US plantings, last month they forecast bean acres at 83.9 million, up sharply from the 2013 estimated area of 76.5 million and almost a million more than Goldman Sachs said earlier in the week. It doesn't feel like the soybean rally is over just yet, although longer term the prospect of large record South American crop and a potentially huge increase in US soybean plantings in 2014 indicate a possible significant downside. Nov 13 Soybeans closed at $13.17 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents; Jan 14 Soybeans closed at $13.13 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents; Dec 13 Soybean Meal closed at $424.60, up $1.30; Dec 13 Soybean Oil closed at 40.97, up a penny.

Corn: The corn market closed around 3-4 cents easier, and appears to be reverting to type after the modest post-USDA report rally. Bullish support should have come from news that weekly US ethanol production was 927,000 barrels/day last week, up 25,000 bpd from the previous week and the largest since Feb 10, 2012. The prospect of an imminent downwards adjustment to the US ethanol mandate hangs over the market though. MDA CropCast raised their forecast for the 2013 US corn crop by 5.7 MMT from last week to 347.4 MMT, citing improved yield expectations. They also increased the size of the Russian corn crop by 2 MMT from last week to 11 MMT. There were smaller cuts for Europe, down 800 TMT and Brazil, down 500 TMT. South Korea's Nofi cancelled a tender to import 70 TMT of optional origin corn for April shipment citing higher prices than anticipated. Dow Jones said South Korean feed mills have their corn needs covered through to the end of February. Informa are expected to release their latest peek into 2014 plantings tomorrow, with corn acres last month estimated at 91.7 million, versus 92.5 million from Goldman Sachs earlier in the week and the 95.3 million estimated this year. Trade ideas for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for corn are around 700 TMT to 1 MMT. The Ukraine corn harvest is 81% done at 24 MMT, and the Russian harvest is 65.4% complete at 8.5 MMT. The USDA's FAS in Ukraine estimated their corn exports in 2013/14 rising to a record 17 MMT versus 13 MMT in 2012/13. When all said and done it looks like there's a chance for corn to revisit the more than 3-year lows set earlier this month, and possibly set fresh ones yet if and when the EPA do cut the ethanol mandate. Dec 13 Corn closed at $4.26 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents; Mar 14 Corn closed at $4.36 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed narrowly mixed. Egypt bought one cargo of Romanian wheat and three of French origin in their tender. That's the first French wheat that they've bought since December 2012, and should add a bit of support to the European market. Strategie Grains forecast EU soft wheat exports at 23.7 MMT, up 1.6 MMT on their previous estimate and 5 MMT more than a year previously. That's way higher than anything else in the market when you consider that it doesn't include durum or wheat flour exports as many other forecasts do. Certainly the early season pace is there to back that up. Brussels announced that they'd issued a further 612 TMT worth of soft wheat export licences this week, taking the 2013/14 marketing year to date total to 10 MMT versus 6.4 MMT this time a year ago. This doesn't necessarily help US wheat though, although Brazil was said to have bought 60,000 MT of US HRW wheat for Dec shipment yesterday. Weekly export sales for tomorrow will be of interest, with the trade anticipating sales of around 300-600 TMT. Informa are due to announce their idea on US wheat plantings for the 2014 harvest tomorrow, last month they forecast those at 57.7 million acres. MDA CropCast added just over 2 MMT to their Australian wheat production forecast "due to favourable late season conditions." They also raised their US all wheat production forecast by 500 TMT to 58 MMT. There were downwards adjustments for Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Kazakhstan. A potentially downward bias for corn still hangs over the wheat market. The large price differential between the two suggests an increase in plantings for 2014 where possible, which could be bearish in the longer term. Dec 13 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.44 3/4, down 3/4 cent; Dec 13 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.03, up 1 cent; Dec 13 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.00, up 1/2 cent.