Nogger's Blog

29/05/12 -- Soybeans: Jul 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.86 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.93 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents; Jul 12 Soybean Meal ended at USD412.50, up USD3.20; Jul 12 Soybean Oil closed at 50.17, up 5 points. Funds bought an estimated 3,000 soybean contracts on the day in what seems to be the re-establishment of a long beans short corn position. The IGC estimated South America’s 2011/12 soybean crop at 114.4 MMT versus their previous estimate of 115.9 MMT. Argentina’s crop is estimated at 41.0 MMT versus thir previous estimate of 42.9 MMT. Informa Economics cut their projections for the already tight 2011/12 and 2012/13 US soybean ending stocks. After the close the USDA reported US soybean planting at 89% complete (versus 61% normally), with emergence running at 61% (versus 30% normally). Celeres report that 86% of the Brazilian 2011/12 bean crop has been sold versus 66% on average for this time of year. The Government of Heilongjiang said their 2012 soybean planted area will fall 23% this year as farmers switch to corn.

Corn: Jul 12 Corn closed at USD5.62 1/2, down 16 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.17 1/2, down 4 cents. Funds selling, estimated at 15,000 contracts on the day, pushed corn lower despite mixed weather reports. A dry May has seen corn planting progress at a record pace but this dryness is starting to cause concern in some areas. Nevertheless, when the funds are selling the market goes down. The USDA said after the close that corn emergence is running at 92% compared to 69% normally, but they cut their good/excellent crop rating by five points to 72%. Illinois fell 13% and Indiana 14% in the top two categories versus last week. These seem to be the two main states exhibiting moisture stress. Illinois is typically the second largest US corn producing state, with Indiana ranked fifth. Recent rains in Ukraine are seen improving crop conditions there for newly planted corn. Given favourable weather the FSU country could emerge as a thorn in the side of the USD as the world's second largest corn exporter in 2012/13. Not everybody likes Ukraine corn, but they could sure help the price depressed as they career around the world scouting for buyers.

Wheat: Jul 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.56 3/4, down 23 1/4 cents; Jul 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.78, down 22 cents; Jul 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.71 3/4, down 14 1/2 cents. Funds were given credit for selling 5,000 CBOT wheat contracts on the day. Weekend rains and more in the forecast for some of the driest areas of Ukraine and southern Russia put wheat under pressure from the off. Eastern Australia is also seen picking up some needed moisture, although Western & Southern Australia is still dry. The EU Commission estimated the wheat crop there at 134.6 MMT - 2.6 MMT above the USDA's recent forecast. The wheat harvest is underway in Kansas, three weeks earlier than normal, and yields seem to be better than was feared. The USDA say that winter wheat harvesting is 9% done, versus 3% last week and just 1% normally. Good/excellent ratings fell four points to 54%, although that is still significantly better than the 33% in the top two categories of this time last year. Spring wheat good/excellent rose five points to 79%.