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Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 22:19 | Categorized as

24/01/11 -- Soybeans

March beans settled 7 3/4c lower at USD14.04 1/2 a bushel; March soymeal closed USD0.60 higher at USD380.20; March soyoil ended 38 points lower at 57.18. The outlook for much improved rainfall in Argentina took the bullish shine off beans today. "In an amazing turn of events in Argentina, some of the driest areas will see two week rain totals of 8-14 inches. This very wet weather begins late Tuesday and lasts (at least) into early February," says QT Weather. The USDA announced the sale of 114,000 MT of 2010/11 soybeans to China, who also agreed to buy 11.5 MMT of US beans for the 2010/11 and 2011/12 marketing years.

Corn

March corn ended down 2c at USD6.55 1/4 a bushel; March corn also closed down 2c at USD6.65 a bushel. Private analyst Informa upped its corn acreage estimate for 2011 slightly to 90.9 million acres on Friday. The much improved Argentine weather outlook is probably less helpful for corn than beans. Strength in wheat lent some support, but the market seems nervous about pressing much higher with funds already holding a record long position. Everybody is bullish and downside risk is almost inconceivable, which is dangerous territory to be in. Meanwhile the two-headed ethanol monster continues to devour US corn.

Wheat

CBOT March wheat closed up 10 3/4c at USD8.35 1/4 a bushel; KCBT March wheat climbed 8c to USD9.08; MGEX March wheat rose 13c to USD9.50 1/4. As you can see ten dollar wheat isn't that far away in Minneapolis. China is dry, and set to remain that way, but we've been here before and they only emerge as a major wheat buyer very, very rarely. The market is however waking up to the fact that the US are pretty much the only volume seller of quality wheat. Unless you want Argentine unreliability. Much of their exportable surplus will likely go to neighbouring Brazil anyway.