EU Grain Close

November London feed wheat closed GBP1.95 higher at GBP133.20/tonne, with November Paris milling wheat EUR3.25 higher at EUR180.75/tonne.

Futures opened lower, but soon rebounded once Russian analysis group SovEcon lowered their grain output estimate for the nation to 70-75 MMT, and warned that things could drop below 70 MMT.

Russian production estimates are dropping by as much as 5 MMT every week at the moment it seems. SovEcon didn't issue an estimate on wheat output, but the Russian Grain Union did, pegging production at only 45 MMT this season.

As the harvest progresses in Russia it seems that output predictions are dropping like a stone. One can only assume that something similar will happen in Kazakhstan too?

Things aren't as bad in Ukraine, but production there is also undoubtedly lower this year. That leaves the three main "let's just take whatever we can get" culprits looking at significantly reduced exports this season. Some are even suggesting that Russia will ban exports entirely.

That doesn't seem likely to me, although it certainly looks like they will be curtailed.

At home in the UK, the early winter wheat harvest results seem to be indicating some "so so" results. Not as bad as feared, but down on 2009 seems to sum it up.