The Canadian Situation: Talking Telephone Numbers

Was it only a fortnight ago that my Canadian correspondent Brad Eggum emailed me to flag up the planting problems they were experiencing over there? Yes, indeed it was, "the story that nobody seems to be speaking about right now" was how Brad put it.

Well, they're certainly talking about it now that's for sure. Nobody knows at this stage how much land will go unplanted, or indeed what the production implications are for what does get sown under these conditions.

It seems that as far as the former is concerned, we could be talking telephone numbers after the Canadian Wheat Board's estimate Friday that as much as 12.5 million acres of cropland could go unsown this year.

That's a huge area in a country that the USDA has down to tie with Russia as the world's third largest exporter of wheat in 2010/11, after the US and EU-27. They are of course also very significant players in the export market for oats and rapeseed - being the world's largest exporter of both.

The oats market in Chicago jumped limit up last night. The US consumes around 3 MMT of oats per year, but only produces around 1.3 MMT, making them easily the largest oat importer in the world. Almost all of their requirement comes from Canada.

The Canadians also vie with China as being the world's largest rapeseed producer, they are easily the global leader in exports. Despite a firm Canadian dollar Winnipeg rapeseed futures were also sharply higher last night, settling at their highest levels since January.

Whatever acreage does manage to ultimately get sown in Canada faces an uphill struggle. Late planted crops will have a shortened growing cycle before the first frosts arrive in the autumn. In addition there are yield, disease and quality issues from crops sown under extremely wet conditions.

This is certainly a situation that wants watching closely across the summer months.