Argy Farmers Set To Ramp Up Wheat Production
Before the soybean and corn harvest is even out of the way Argy farmers are already considering their options for winter wheat planting.
Two years of successive drought and a general level of dissatisfaction with government restrictions on exports have seen plantings and production fall steeply since a 6.6 million hectare and 18.6 MMT crop in 2007/08.
Production last season was only 7.5 MMT by common consensus off around 2.8 million hectares. (Curiously, and as a separate issue the USDA still have significantly higher production and acreage figures for last season and even the season before than everybody else in Argentina).
Argy exports were 11.2 MMT in 2007/08, but are set to fall by around two thirds to just 4-4.5 MMT in the current marketing year. Lower exports means lower revenue for the government, and growers are cautiously optimistic that export taxes and other restictions will be eased to encourage more plantings for 2010/11, which gets underway next month.
The weather is also a crucial factor, and near ideal growing conditions for soybeans and corn this summer, boosted by beneficial El Nino induced rains have hopefully put the two year wheat jinx to bed.
There are of course additional rotational benefits to giving wheat another chance again this time round too.
It's very early days yet, and there are some very wide apart estimates kicking around at the moment, but all this points to planted area jumping significantly this year.
Anything like normal yields could potentially see the crop double in size to around 15 MMT. Some estimates are even higher, 17.7 MMT is one I've seen, that would represent an increase of 136% on last season. The latter would surpass domestic usage by well over 10 MMT, potentially propelling Argentina back into the world's top five global wheat exporters.
Two years of successive drought and a general level of dissatisfaction with government restrictions on exports have seen plantings and production fall steeply since a 6.6 million hectare and 18.6 MMT crop in 2007/08.
Production last season was only 7.5 MMT by common consensus off around 2.8 million hectares. (Curiously, and as a separate issue the USDA still have significantly higher production and acreage figures for last season and even the season before than everybody else in Argentina).
Argy exports were 11.2 MMT in 2007/08, but are set to fall by around two thirds to just 4-4.5 MMT in the current marketing year. Lower exports means lower revenue for the government, and growers are cautiously optimistic that export taxes and other restictions will be eased to encourage more plantings for 2010/11, which gets underway next month.
The weather is also a crucial factor, and near ideal growing conditions for soybeans and corn this summer, boosted by beneficial El Nino induced rains have hopefully put the two year wheat jinx to bed.
There are of course additional rotational benefits to giving wheat another chance again this time round too.
It's very early days yet, and there are some very wide apart estimates kicking around at the moment, but all this points to planted area jumping significantly this year.
Anything like normal yields could potentially see the crop double in size to around 15 MMT. Some estimates are even higher, 17.7 MMT is one I've seen, that would represent an increase of 136% on last season. The latter would surpass domestic usage by well over 10 MMT, potentially propelling Argentina back into the world's top five global wheat exporters.