Overnight Developments

A relatively quiet start to 2009 so far, with eCBOT grains lower, despite a steadier crude oil market.

Overnight wheat is down around 8-11 cents, corn off around 6c and soybeans 4-5c easier.

Crude is firmer on escalating tensions in the Middle East, but the grains seem to be continuing to divorce themselves from the energy sector.

South American weather is still a concern, although rains of over an inch fell in parts of Brazil across the weekend. More rain is needed for any remaining planting and developing soybeans through Rio Grande do Sul and Parana. Largely favourable conditions exist across Mato Grosso.

Argentina is more of a concern, with mostly dry conditions or just a few light showers forecast Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal during this period.

The wheat harvest is well advanced, unhindered by rain, but significant crop losses are anticipated due to lower plantings and persistent drought. Expect a crop of around 9mmt, down 44% on last season's 16mmt.

Iraq has bought 500,000mt wheat in a tender, half Black Sea origin and half Canadian. This follows on from Pakistan purchasing a similar quantity of Black Sea wheat just before Christmas, and Egypt buying 100,000mt Russian wheat around the same time.

The pound is steady, possibly for the last time in 2009 (!), around $1.45 against the dollar and 1.06 against the euro.