China: An Accident Waiting To Happen
An analysis by researchers at the University of Leeds suggests that China’s grain production is shifting from high-value farmland on the coastal fringe to drought-prone areas of the interior.
Farmers on the high-value land instead are shifting from growing grain to high-value horticultural crops and flowers, which are then exported to countries like Australia.
"Growing grain is a fundamentally low profit exercise, and is increasingly being carried out on low quality land with high vulnerability to drought," said the report’s lead author, Dr Elisabeth Simelton.
The study analysed how social and economic factors are influencing the vulnerability of China’s crops to drought.
China currently claims to be 95pc self-sufficient in grain, although the United Nations reports that 20pc of Chinese are "food insecure".
But even a small shift in China’s export demand, caused by drought or socio-economic factors, could have an explosive effect on global food markets.
Dr Simelton said that if China boosts grain imports by only 5pc, those imports could swallow up all the world’s grain surpluses.
Farmers on the high-value land instead are shifting from growing grain to high-value horticultural crops and flowers, which are then exported to countries like Australia.
"Growing grain is a fundamentally low profit exercise, and is increasingly being carried out on low quality land with high vulnerability to drought," said the report’s lead author, Dr Elisabeth Simelton.
The study analysed how social and economic factors are influencing the vulnerability of China’s crops to drought.
China currently claims to be 95pc self-sufficient in grain, although the United Nations reports that 20pc of Chinese are "food insecure".
But even a small shift in China’s export demand, caused by drought or socio-economic factors, could have an explosive effect on global food markets.
Dr Simelton said that if China boosts grain imports by only 5pc, those imports could swallow up all the world’s grain surpluses.