UK 2009 Wheat Production Seen Down 8 Pct

Strategie Grains are forecasting the 2009/10 UK wheat production 8% lower at 16.015mmt, down almost 1.4mmt from this season's crop.

Planted area is seen 5% lower at 1.97 million hectares (from 2.08 million ha) and yields are also seen 3% lower from last season's record 8.39mt/ha to 8.12mt ha.

Amongst the more salient points made are that of the intended area, 10% has still to go into the ground.

I still contend that the balance of probability suggests that final 2009/10 yields within 3% of last season's record is optimistic. A late planted crop, slowly developing due to low temperatures and more than adequate soil moisture could potentially reduce yields, as could reduced inputs due to cost constraints.