World rapeseed supply and demand 2008/09

Informa this month pegged world rapeseed production at 51.5 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes on last year's 47.3 million tonnes.

Oil World expects the world to crush 49.9 million tonnes of rapeseed this year as compared to 48.3 million tonnes last year.

Significant production increases are seen coming from Australia (1.7 million tonnes compared to 1.1 million tonnes in 2007) and the Ukraine (2.5 million tonnes vs 1.1 million tonnes last year).

Informa says that the Ukraine will have up to 2 million tonnes of non-GMO rapeseed to export this year.

Statistics Canada is predicting that Canadian farmers will plant a record amount of canola this year. Informa is forecasting the Canadian canola production number will hit 10.3 million tonnes versus 8.8 million tonnes last year.

The Chinese Minstry of Agriculture and Informa are pegging this year’s Chinese winter rapeseed crop at 11.85 million tonnes this year. That is up 3.8% over last year.

EU-27 production is seen around unchanged depending on who's figures you rely on.

The USDA is forecasting an 18.9 million tonne EU-27 rapeseed crop this year. Toepfer thinks this is optimistic and thinks the number will be closer to 18.3 million tonnes, whilst Oil World sees Europe producing 18 million tonnes of rapeseed this year versus 18.2 million tonnes last year.

Oil World says there is a high probability that oilseed prices will continue to trend lower in the short term unless there is a crop production issue.

So there you have it. According to Oil World & Informa we have a world 4.2 million tonnes production increase partially offset by an extra 1.6 million tonnes of crush, leaving 2.6 million tonnes surplus to requirements.

An amount, maybe coincidentally, maybe not, almost exactly that of the entire production of the Ukraine.

Is it just me or do you feel a bit sorry for Ukraine? We told them we were desperate for wheat & rapeseed this year, they go and produce millions of tonnes more of the stuff, and now we don't want it!

I feel a bit like you do when you're in an Indian restaurant late on and there are some lads in a bit rowdy and p*ssed up. They order everything on the menu then sneak out thirty seconds before it arrives.

They won't fall for that one so easily again next year will they? Still there's always Eurovision 2009, bless.

So, the next time you hear the old "we just can't buy the seed" line, toss them this....